Friday, September 08, 2006

Stocks vs. Commodities




The last 3 years have witnessed a huge move in commodities . The CRB index rose from 189 in 2002 to its all-time high of 367 this past May.... . Crude Oil rose to all-time highs of $78/bbl. .... Gold rose from $350/oz. in early 2003 to its most recent 25-year high of $732/oz ..... Copper rose to an all-time high of $4.04/lb. ..... Silver rose to 22-year highs of $15/oz , and the beat goes on and on and on ........


While the reflation of liquidity was a positive for Equities and Commodities in late 2002 , the current inflationary pressures have witnessed an outflow of money from Equities into Commodities and thus stocks have suffered for months and months .


Now we're witnessing a small shift which may or may not be the start of a new InterMarket flow of money . With the Fed on pause and seemingly in front of inflationary pressures , Bonds and Stocks have both rallied and Commodities have been under pressure . Most commodities are down 10% + from their highs while the Dow Jones Industrials are within 5% of their all-time highs .


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