Recession on the horizon ???

In the last 60 years , the U.S. economy has slid into recession each time that we've had an inverted yield curve --- defined as 2- yr. Treasuries yielding more than 10-yr. treasuries . This phenomenon has been prevalent with the curve inversion ranging between -1 to -8 bps since June . At present we also have FedFunds (5.25%) higher than the whole curve : 2-yr. 4.86% , 5-yr. 4.74% , 10-yr. 4.80% , 30-yr. 4.92% .
The Fed and the White House don't want to scare the consumer with this type of news , but as the 3Q ends and the Elections pass , economic #'s should continue their downward path...... Harvard Professor Martin Feldstein, who chairs the National Bureau of Economic Research, said a recession could occur if households made a "decision to start saving again" rather than keep spending as the housing market fades ........ and , as economist Gary Shilling says , "The Federal Reserve almost always overshoots. Since 1954, the Fed has undertaken 11 credit-tightening campaigns, and in only one of those -in the mid-1990s - did they succeed in effecting a "soft landing" for the economy. So the odds are that they will keep going until something happens, and that something is almost always a recession. "