Friday, December 29, 2006

Shares outstanding contracting --- The Buyout and Merger effect


"... shares outstanding in the U.S. contracted by at least $600 billion this year -- roughly 3.1% of the market's total value, according to TrimTabs."The U.S. equity market hasn't shrunk by that much in at least a decade. In 2005, the market contracted by roughly 2% and by less than 0.1% in 2004, TrimTabs estimates. From 1999 through 2003, the market expanded every year. (Percentages are based on the market capitalization of the U.S. equity market at the end of each year.)"

Revisiting Copper


DJ Industrials priced in Gold (inflation's still alive)

Who says there's no inflation ??? Look at the Dow Jones Industrials' performance priced in Gold instead of the $ ....
When priced in gold rather than dollars, the Dow was down 5.7% in 4Q 2006, down 3.3% for the 2006 year, and down 53% since the peak in 2000

Friday, December 22, 2006

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Friday, December 08, 2006

GDP --- Developed economies

3Q GDP #'s have been reported for most major economies , and while there will be revisions to these figures as more data comes in , here are the preliminary figures so far :

US +2.0%
Japan +0.8%
UK +0.7%
Germany +0.6%
France +0%
Italy +0.3%
Spain +0.9%
Canada +1.8%

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Comeback of Crude


WTI Light Crude just crossed over its 50-Day moving average and is poised to attempt a rally to its 200-day m.a.

Monday, November 27, 2006

$$$$


Should we really believe that the $ won't hold the same importance in world trade in the future that it does now ...... that the Euro will displace it .... that the Chinese and Japanese will diversify their foreign holdings by selling more $'s and instead buy the Euro







S&P500 Earnings : Now vs. Then

This chart illustrates S&P 500 earnings per share and price over the past several years: observe how much higher EPS is than the last time the index was at 1400

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Monday, November 20, 2006

Stock Options

This chart shows the average stock price movements 30 days before and 30 days after the awarding of 7,786 option grants to the CEOs of 1,970 companies between 1996 and 2005

Sunday, November 19, 2006

3Q S&P 500 Earnings report card : A+

S&P 500 profit growth for the third quarter came in around 20% versus a long-term historical average of 7%, according to Thomson Financial. This marks the 17th straight quarter of double-digit profit growth, the best streak since recording keeping began in 1936.... another great quarter for corporate America and for equities


Saturday, November 11, 2006

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Friday, October 27, 2006

Monday, October 23, 2006

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Sunday, October 15, 2006

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Rate Cuts ???

On the back of the most recent weak economic numbers ( GDP only 2.6% in 2Q , Durable Goods Orders -0.5% in August , Housing Prices falling for the first time in 11 years , etc. ) , the Bond market is starting to price in the possibility of Rate cuts as soon as the 1Q of 2007 . Additionaly , the implied rates are even starting to price in the possibility of a second rate cut by next August