Crude Oil -- Last 2 years

S&P500 Returns : During earnings season , earnings off-season

Commodity Currencies

In the last 9 months we've seen some very sharp drops in two major commodities, oil and copper . Oil has fallen from $78/bbl to $56/bbl. , and Copper has dropped from $4.05/lb. to $2.60/lb. . One of the ramifications of a commodity drop is the influence that it holds on a Commodity-based economy's currency . As commodity prices rise , more currency is needed to buy it and in turn the currency rises ..... and as the commodity's price falls , less currency is needed , thus putting downward pressure on that "commodity currency " . A great example of this is the Canadian Dollar which has seen its value fall from 91-cents to 85-cents in the last five months . Examinations of the Australian Dollar , New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand have also exhibited the same negative action

TLT --- Head and Shoulders ???

TLT .... the 10-year Treasury Note ETF ( proxy for debt markets) looks as if it may be setting up for a Head-and-Shoulders pattern with yields rising ( and thus prices falling )

Housing Starts and Permits

For a good idea of what's happening in Real Estate , we can see the demand destruction brought about by over-building over the last 5 years

Shares outstanding contracting --- The Buyout and Merger effect

"... shares outstanding in the U.S. contracted by at least $600 billion this year -- roughly 3.1% of the market's total value, according to TrimTabs."The U.S. equity market hasn't shrunk by that much in at least a decade. In 2005, the market contracted by roughly 2% and by less than 0.1% in 2004, TrimTabs estimates. From 1999 through 2003, the market expanded every year. (Percentages are based on the market capitalization of the U.S. equity market at the end of each year.)"

Revisiting Copper

DJ Industrials priced in Gold (inflation's still alive)

Who says there's no inflation ??? Look at the Dow Jones Industrials' performance priced in Gold instead of the $ ....
When priced in gold rather than dollars, the Dow was down 5.7% in 4Q 2006, down 3.3% for the 2006 year, and down 53% since the peak in 2000

PPI , CPI

The battle continues

Total Household Net Worth -- Revisiting the 2003 Tax Cuts

GDP --- Developed economies

3Q GDP #'s have been reported for most major economies , and while there will be revisions to these figures as more data comes in , here are the preliminary figures so far :

US +2.0%
Japan +0.8%
UK +0.7%
Germany +0.6%
France +0%
Italy +0.3%
Spain +0.9%
Canada +1.8%

Comeback of Crude

WTI Light Crude just crossed over its 50-Day moving average and is poised to attempt a rally to its 200-day m.a.

$$$$

Should we really believe that the $ won't hold the same importance in world trade in the future that it does now ...... that the Euro will displace it .... that the Chinese and Japanese will diversify their foreign holdings by selling more $'s and instead buy the Euro

S&P500 Earnings : Now vs. Then

This chart illustrates S&P 500 earnings per share and price over the past several years: observe how much higher EPS is than the last time the index was at 1400

1986-1997 Inflation-Adjusted Housing Prices

Stock Options

This chart shows the average stock price movements 30 days before and 30 days after the awarding of 7,786 option grants to the CEOs of 1,970 companies between 1996 and 2005

3Q S&P 500 Earnings report card : A+

S&P 500 profit growth for the third quarter came in around 20% versus a long-term historical average of 7%, according to Thomson Financial. This marks the 17th straight quarter of double-digit profit growth, the best streak since recording keeping began in 1936.... another great quarter for corporate America and for equities

Post-Election..... now what ?????

Housing Starts